The following set of principles was developed for a vision scenario. These principles assume lower highway travel growth, great reliance on non-highway modes (e.g., intercity passenger rail), aggressive investment in transportation operations improvements, congestion pricing via variable VMT fees, and more transportation-friendly land use patterns. The vision principles and the scenario are intended to support regional economic growth while contributing to emerging energy and greenhouse gas emission targets.

• Economic Sustainability – Sustain and enhance I-95 regional economic vitality and global competitiveness through key investments in transportation infrastructure and advanced technology.
• Environmental, Energy, and Quality of Life Sustainability - Support a reduced carbon footprint through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (from 1990 levels) by 2020 and longer term consistent with emerging national and state reduction goals (e.g., 70-90% reductions from today’s levels by 2050). One aspect of the energy goal is the doubling of fleet fuel efficiency.
• Transportation Sustainability - Creatively invest in a 21st Century transportation infrastructure, preserving, expanding and operationally enhancing aviation, highway, port and rail systems, to reduce congestion and support a sustainable economy.

Procurement Agency: Maryland SHA
Project Contact: Mark Muriello, Assistant Director, Tunnels, Bridges, and Terminals Department E-mail:mmuriello@panynj.gov

This project has the following objectives:

Report Name	Report
2040 Vision for I-95 Region Executive Summary	View
2040 Vision for I-95 Region Full Report	View
Long Range Strategic Vision - Issue Paper	View
Vision Principles - Details	View
Key Policy Implications	View

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Vision Study Growth Assumptions

The I-95 Coalition 2040 Vision was developed based on long-term trends and, even with the recent short-term fluctuations in the economy, the Vision’s projections are still valid assumptions for the longer term 2040 vision period.    The Vision study assumed that the region’s long term growth would rebound following the current severe economic downturn, albeit at a lower rate of growth than previously forecast (see detailed assumptions below). Importantly, the region’s more modest economic and travel growth assumptions were developed in the context of significantly reduced fossil fuel use and dramatic reductions in GHG emissions.

Background: Long range economic, energy, climate, and travel assumptions underpinning Vision Study

1. Economic and Population Growth - The Vision study incorporated lower mid-2008 economic (GDP) forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office and the Energy Information Agency. These national agencies lowered their average annual GDP growth rate projections over the next 30 years from 2.8 percent to 2.4 percent reflecting the impact of the current recession, increasing energy costs, and the potential transportation cost impacts of greenhouse gas emission regulations. However, the lower growth rate does not radically change the longer-term demand for freight transportation or the need for freight transportation capacity. At a 2.4 percent growth rate, freight tonnage will roughly double in 30 years compared to 25 years at 2.8 percent; thus freight roughly doubles by 2040 (coinciding with the horizon year for the Vision study) under the reduced GDP growth rate. There will likely be cyclical economic recessions as being experienced currently with slower growth as well as periods of more rapid growth in the future but the average growth of 2.4% will allow for the I-95 corridor and its megaregions to effectively compete with other global trade blocks and megaregions around the world.  The region’s transportation system must also accommodate a growing population. Population within the Coalition region is projected to increase by approximately 36 million people (33 percent growth) through 2040 which will create a Corridor population of 146 million.  
2. Energy - The study assumed energy prices increasing substantially in nominal terms over the next couple decades, likely to $200 or more per barrel. In the longer term, prices are likely to become increasingly volatile and inevita­bly trending higher as we approach world-peak production constraints in the latter decades of the vision timeframe. In real dollar terms, more modest oil price increases are assumed, that in the longer term, allow transportation to adapt with vehi­cle technology improvement and alternative fuel source development along with modestly lower transportation demand.
3. Climate - the Vision study assumed that transportation will be expected to meet 60 to 80 percent reduction targets for 2050 GHG emissions as currently being discussed in emerging state and Federal legislation, and international climate goals.
4. Travel - In line with the above economic, energy, and climate assumptions, the I‑95 Vision adopts the AASHTO vision goal of limiting VMT growth to 1 percent per year. A very important result is that this lower rate of VMT growth still preserves passenger and freight mobility to serve an expanding regional population and economy while contributing substantially to energy and climate goals. Personal VMT per capita would remain roughly constant over the period while freight VMT demand per capita would still show growth but lower than in the trend projection.